Shane Carwin's last 2 twitter messages:

Looks like I'll be fighting October 24 in LA. Excited to know.

Oops I was not supposed to say anything. Got to get used to people watching me. No bout agreement yet. Looks like Cain and I if all goes

.

Obviously, this is an extremely interesting matchup, and the winner could very well get a title shot. I'm sort of surprised they're matching them up this quickly, but at least no one can say they're babying their up-and-coming heavyweights. My initial thoughts are that if Cain got dropped by Kongo, he's going to have massive trouble with Carwin's power.

I don't have a ton of time, so I'm just going to get an abbreviated preview of this event out there. I was going to skip a preview altogether, but that seems unfair. I'm the biggest WEC fan there is, and I felt like I was letting them and myself down by not letting people know how fucking killer this card is going to be. To be honest, I'm actually a bit hesitant about tomorrow, because one of my heroes is likely going to get beaten into retirement, and watching that happen is something I've been dreading all week. My completely illogical preview of the fight should explain that one. Other than that, you've got a showcase for a guy who should get his rematch at the 155 belt soon, and a whole bunch of featherweight action -- the best, deepest division in MMA, in my humble opinion. Anyway, let's get to the card.

Jens Pulver vs. Josh Grispi - Yes, a Pulver win is highly unlikely, but I'm not going against Lil Evil. Can't do it. Throw objectivity out the window. I'm not sure I can back up a Pulver win with even the most jaded analysis. I just don't want to see a guy I respect so much go out like this. I know it's a tad unfair, but why can't the WEC just throw Jens a bone and give him a marginal fighter to get his confidence back?

There's so much going on in his head, I'm not sure he has the capacity to fight the smart fight against Grispi. His chin is all but gone. He's likely to get overwhelmed by Grispi's pace. All he really has is experience and smarts in his favor here, and basically I'm making this pick based on that. Catch the 21 year old napping, and force him to get tapping.

People, don't bet on Jens. See this for what it is - one of his biggest fans living a lie. The Fluke is likely going to win. You're likely watching the last fight of Pulver's career. I'm not willing to stick to that (likely) script though. That's bullshit. That's no way to go out. I don't care if that's "life" and "life is unfair". Fuck that. Screw the analysis for once, I'm calling this like a true fight fan. Lil Evil takes out the punk kid. Jens Pulver, submission, round 1. Glad this isn't part of the fantasy contest.

Donald Cerrone vs. James Krause - It irks me that people constantly mis-characterize Cerrone as a ground guy, because of the subs on his record. His standup is world-class at 145, and he started as a kickboxer. The ground game came later. Yes, he's good on the ground, but his bread and butter is his striking game, and like most strikers, his biggest weakness is his takedown defense. In this vein, Krause is not a bad matchup for him. He'll have the WEC octagon jitters, and will get overwhelmed by Cerrone on the feet. His wrestling isn't that great, and even if he gets Cowboy down, he won't keep him there for long. This is the fight where Cowboy will finally have a target to showcase that killer striking. Cerrone, TKO, round 1.

Jose Aldo vs. Cub Swanson - This fight is so much closer than people are giving Cub credit for. I'm certainly on the Aldo bandwagon, and his size and skills are massive. But Cub should not be a 3-1 dog here. Yes, the guy got caught up by Jens in a minute, but that's his only loss since the first fight of his career. He controlled a tall, lanky BJJ guy in Micah Miller and got the W. The win over Takaya was impressive. If Aldo is going to finish Cub, it's going to be on the ground. I see Aldo's killer striking winning him rounds, but not getting a finish. Aldo, semi-close decision.

Mike Brown vs. Urijah Faber for the 145 belt - The size difference will be evident later in the fight, but I can't say for sure if that will benefit Brown or Faber. I can't see how Faber can finish MTB, so a decision win by Faber is all he's got. He certainly has the cardio and pace to get it, but Brown's a monster that's going to hurt Faber multiple times. Brown can stun and sub Faber, he can be patient and catch Faber doing something stupid like last time, and he has more power in his hands than Faber. I think it's better for the WEC if The Califonia Kid gets that belt back, but Brown is the real deal. It'll be a close, long fight, but Brown's the horse I'm betting on. Mike Brown, decision.

Quick picks
Lil Evil, sub, round 1
Cerrone, TKO, round 1
Aldo, decision
Brown, decision

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The weekend is a kickass weekend for MMA, and that's without even a UFC event. This Strikeforce card on Saturday night is by far the best card they've ever put on. Then on sunday, you get to watch the Pulver/Brown rematch [7-days-later edit - Pulver/Brown? Told you I was worried about Jens all week. FABER/Brown is what I meant] at WEC 41. The best part? It's all free (if you get Showtime, anyway). Actually, the whole month is pretty crazy, with the Bellator tourney finals, a Strikeforce Challengers card, UFC 99 and the TUF 9 finale. There's even Tim Sylvia and Ray Mercer boxing, if you're really bored. Anyway, let's get to why we're here.

Quite simply, this is a sick card. I'm still not a fan of catchweight fights, but I guess I don't see the harm if they don't keep continually going back to them. Bringing in Arlovski was a genius move, as he's probably the most well-known fighter on the card and will draw a lot of casual viewers. Plus, it's likely that Affliction will pay his salary, so it's win-win for everyone. Well, except for Brett Rogers probably. Over half of these guys have KO power, and I can pretty much guarantee that, aside from Mike Whitehead, every fighter here has the ability to do something that will get you off your ass and yelling at the TV. On the other hand, I might be the only person that does that a lot. Go Old Milwaukee.

Kevin Randleman vs. Mike Whitehead - Honestly, who knows how to call this. I have absolutely no idea what Kevin Randleman will show up. Does he still have The Monster in him, or is he going to re-expose himself as a washed up 37 year old MMA 1.0 guy who's 3-7 in his last 10? In his first fight back, he decisioned Ryo Kawamura but did NOT look good doing it. He barely threw any strikes, and just worked takedowns the whole time. He also was extremely close to tapping to a kimura. That fight was a year ago now. Randleman is working with Xtreme Couture, but it's tough to say where he's at. Whitehead isn't exciting at the best of times, but he's hard to finish. I'm going to go with a dreadfully boring lay n pray decision win for Randleman here.

Phil Baroni vs. Joe Riggs - This fight is all sorts of weird. Both of these guys are still relevant because of their mouths more than anything. Riggs has been very injury prone lately, and said after his last fight against Luke Stewart that he wanted to go back up to 185 because the cut was too much for him. Guess not, but I wouldn't be surprised if he hits the scales a bit heavy. Baroni's trying to rebuild his career at 170, but...come on, it's Phil Baroni. He's a sprawl n brawler, and that's about it. Basically, Riggs is a better wrestler and has a better chin. Baroni likes fighting southpaws, but I don't think he's going to get a KO here. I'll say Riggs will get a late TKO by wearing him down and taking him to places he doesn't want to be. Riggs, TKO, round 3.

Nick Diaz vs. Scott Smith - This is just a crazy style matchup. Smith has insane power, but Diaz has a great chin. Diaz wins rounds with his pawing, while Smith is content to load up bombs. Diaz is obviously better on the ground, but surprisingly he has but 1 victory by submission in the last 5 years. This fight all depends on where Nick wants to take it, and he SHOULD get Smith on his back ASAP. Trading shots with Scott Smith is a bad fucking idea, but you never know with Nick, because he just loves to take it to guys he probably shouldn't. He wants to be exciting, and I don't really blame him. I'm going with a good Cesar Gracie gameplan here though, and I'm going to say Diaz by softening him up on the ground and getting a sub in round 2. But he's probably going to get rocked at least once before he smartens up.

Andrei Arlovski vs. Brett Rogers - This one's pretty simple. Roger's isn't ready for a guy of AA's caliber. He hasn't fought anyone remotely good, and Arlovski is arguably the 3rd best HW in the world. Hopefully we'll get to see more of Arlovski's boxing technique here, because it looked pretty good against Fedor before his flying dolphin routine. The Grim won't get the chance to tie up with Arlovski, and I don't think he hits hard enough to put him out, even though we all know what Arlovski's jaw is made of. AA by TKO in round 1. Great boxing sets up some huge power shots, and Rogers will go night night.

Robbie Lawler vs. Jake Shields - Well, it's a crazy style matchup again, I'll give it that. I'm not sure why, but this fight doesn't do much for me. I've always thought Lawler is overrated, and while Shields is legitimate fighter, he's neglected his standup for a long time. He looked bad for a while against Paul Daley before getting his shit together and taking the fight to the floor. Lawler is going to be much harder to take down, but if it does get there, Robbie's in a world of trouble. 2 things are key for me here - Jake's chin, and Lawler's sprawl. I'm sure Shields is the underdog, but I think he shocks MMA in the end. Gets beat up in the first, but earns the good takedown in the second and submits Lawler with something pretty. Shields, submission, round 2.

Quick picks:

Randleman, decision
Riggs, TKO, round 3
Diaz, sub, round 2
Arlovski, TKO, round 1
Shields, sub, round 2

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Continuing on with the prospects theme from this article, here are a few light heavyweights you might see in the near future. In 2 days I'm already batting .500 on the HW's, but I wouldn't count on any of these guys showing up too soon.

Ryan Jimmo - I'm not sure if a guy has ever lost a prelim fight on TUF and still been able to get into the UFC, but if not, Ryan Jimmo could very well be the first. He lost a decision to Antwain Britt on the first episode of TUF 8, but has improved by leaps and bounds in the short time since. He was a silver medalist at the Pan Am Games in karate, but had two glaring weaknesses in his game - a lack of boxing and wrestling. He has greatly improved both, especially his boxing, and is looking for another shot at the UFC. If he keeps winning, he just might get it.

Stanislav Nedkov - Has there ever been a Bulgarian in the UFC besides Jordan Radev? I honestly don't know, but this guy has the goods to make it. He was supposed to make his pro debut against UFC vet Tomas Drwal back in the day, but the fight didn't happen. He has fought in Shooto, Pancrase, and most recently Sengoku, where he picked up a huge win over Travis Wiuff. He's a BJJ black belt with extremely good, but raw striking. I fully expect him to get a shot in the UFC after a few more victories.

Ricardo Romero - Romero is a former Rutgers wrestler with mad power who was on the rise until an unfortunate incident in a fight last year. He was on his way to winning the Ring of Combat LHW title, until he goofed and landed an illegal soccer kick to the face of his opponent, Glen Sandull. In a weird moment, Sandull was awarded the title while being loaded onto a stretcher, and didn't even realize he won the fight until hours later in the hospital. Despite that setback though, Romero has gone on to win 2 more fights since, and finally gets his rematch with Sandull in the next couple of weeks. A win would definitely set him up for an appearance with a major organization. He's hard to take down and has a killer left hook, but needs to work on his footwork and striking defense.

Alexander Gustafsson - He's a tall LHW (6'5) from Sweden with a very impressive skillset. He has a well developed kickboxing background, in addition to solid freestyle and submission wrestling. He takes amateur boxing fights for fun in his spare time, so that should tell you something about his tenacity. And he's only 22. Talented european fighters are hard to come by, and Gustafsson would be an excellent pickup if the UFC continues to expand over there. The only thing that might be holding him back a bit is some minor knee trouble, but with his length and well-rounded skill set, he could be a future contender at 205. I'm just waiting for the UFC to get on the bandwagon and sign this guy.

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A post on the board gave me an idea for a series of articles. Originally I was going to do it all in one article, but decided to split it up into weight classes. This isn't really a list of can't-miss, obvious talent. It's more about introducing you to some guys you most likely haven't heard of, but could quite possibly get a shot in the UFC or WEC in the future. In addition, I'm leaving off Japanese prospects for 2 reasons. One, a board member did a great job of listing them here, and two, not a lot of Japanese fighters come over here to fight, so while those guys might end up in Dream or Sengoku, they're not guys that Zuffa is exactly lining up for. I figured I'd stick with more familiar territory.

First up, Heavyweights.

Heavyweight

Mike Russow - A 6'2, 265 midwest fighter who wrestled at the same college as Matt Hughes. He fought once in Pride, where he picked up his only loss to Sergei Kharitonov. He's only gone the distance once in his career, and has good all-round skills. He's also one of Monte Cox's guys, so that gives him a line into the UFC.

UPDATE - Crazy, I wrote this last night, and the UFC signed him today. Weird.

Brendan Schaub - He's 6'4, 240, and he's got heavy hands. He's new to the sport, but has caught on very quickly. He played football at the University of Colorado. Then started MMA after school was over. Less than a year into his MMA training, he won the 2008 Colorado Golden Gloves, and won the 2008 Colorado Open BJJ Absolute Advanced competition. He currently trains with Greg Jackson after starting with Nate Marquardt. None of his pro fights have got to the 90 second mark.

Chase Gormley The current Gladiator Challege HW Champ has been training MMA for over 10 years and is a former NAIA All-American wrestler. He's a small HW at around 225, and could maybe make the cut to LHW if he needed to. Gormley was booked for a fight on Affliction's second card, but when the card was postponed and moved to Cali, he was dropped. He's fighting Jeff Monson this weekend, and a win there would go a long way toward Gormley getting a contract with a big organization.

Daniel Puder - Probably a name you've heard before. He's most famous for his stint in the WWE, and for putting Kurt Angle in a legitimate kimura on national TV. He's 7-0 in MMA though, and trains with AKA. He's known as much for his mouth as his skills, and while he'll probably end up fighting in Strikeforce again before anywhere else, he could be a well-rounded pickup for the UFC's HW division.

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Different city, same inspiration, better fights...that basically sums this entry up. I'm now in Rotorua, New Zealand and again, there's not a whole lot to do at night. I don't actually need the booze to write about these 6 fights, since every one of them is compelling on their own, but let's face it - a case of beer never ruined a story before, right? These fights are the backbone of the card, and all have large implications in the bigger picture. Four of the fights make up the quarterfinals of the Dream Featherweight Grand Prix, and the other two will decide a champion and number one contender, respectively.

There's a big rugby game starting in an hour that I've placed a wager on though, so I'm going to abbreviate the previews of each fight somewhat. For those of you wondering, the event starts tomorrow night at 3am EST/midnight PST. I thought I was going to be flying home at that time, but I got the date wrong so I'll be able to watch! Anyway, here we go.

Gesias "JZ" Cavalvante vs. Tatsuya Kawajiri - The winner of this fight is supposed to get a title shot against Joachim Hansen. JZ (profile) was supposed to fight him recently, but Hansen was pulled from the fight at the last minute. This is somewhat of a dream (ignore the pun) matchup for me. I've always thought JZ was criminally underrated, and Crusher might just be my favorite Japanese fighter. Crusher's in trouble here. While his striking game has improved tremendously over the last 2 years, he simply won't be able to handle JZ's size and strength. Despite the K1 fight and his war with Alvarez giving people the idea that Crusher is a pure striker, Kawajiri's game is based in wrestling, and JZ is simply not going to get bullied by a wrestler who's smaller than him. JZ likes to finish ultra-quick, but that's highly unlikely against someone of Kawajiri's pedigree. I actually doubt JZ can finish Kawajirat alli, but he should be able to keep Crusher at bay and take a fairly dominant decision.

Abel Cullum vs. Hideo Tokoro - The first featherweight GP quarterfinal, and a hell of a way to kick it off. People that come around here a fair bit know that I'm a huge Abel Cullum (profile) fan. His smothering pace and excellent ground game continue to fly under the radar, to the point that oddsmakers have stated that 6 out of the 8 competitors in the field are more likely to win this GP than he is. I'm not going to get ahead of myself though. Tokoro is a tremendously crafty guy with good standup and scrambling, and has fought much larger guys for a large portion of his career. To win, he's going to have to keep Abel off him with quick striking and great takedown defense. Can he do it? I don't think so. He's surely not going to sub Abel. About the only way I see Tokoro winning is to catch Abel standing or simply out-will him for 15 minutes. But I'm going to go with Abel by smothering decision. A fancy sub would go a long way towards making a name for himself though, so I really hope he can do just that.

Yoshiro Maeda vs. Hiroyuki Takaya - Outstanding matchup here between two WEC veterans. Maeda is well-known for his absolute war with Miguel Torres, while Takaya certainly didn't have the best of times in North America. Both are well-rounded, but are known more for their striking. I'm actually surprised that they were matched up in the 2nd round, as I figured one of these guys would get Cullum. This is a closer fight than it might appear on paper, but I'm still going with Maeda here. He's maddeningly inconsistent, but he generally gets up for big fights and should be able to move Takaya around and take him down with a fair amount of ease. He also holds the advantage standing, due to his striking versatility, chin, and resiliency. This is definitely his fight to lose, but again I think this fight will lack a finish. Maeda, decision.

Bibiano Fernandes vs. Masakazu Imanari - Sick matchup. Both have excellent submission skills, with Bibiano being more orthodox and Imanari being the master of the leglock. Both have average standup, but Bibiano had no problem standing and trading with Faber in their matchup. Bibiano's 4-2 record is not representative of his skill level, as his losses are to Faber and Kid Yamamoto. If this one does stay standing for any length of time, I'd give the advanatage to Fernandes simply because Imanari tends to have very odd standup and he's not about to hurt anyone. It's no secret that both will be looking for takedown and submissions, and it's extremely tough to call where this fight will go. Fernandes probably has better takedowns, but Imanari is a good scrambler and can catch guys from anywhere. I'd call it a stalemate. One subbing the other would be incredibly impressive, but I don't see it. I'd say Bibiano picks up the decision with better standup, pace, and athleticism. From a technical standpoint though, this will be really exciting to watch and whomever goes on will be a force to be reckoned with.

Norifumi "Kid" Yamamoto vs. Joe Warren - This one was obvious. Dream let Kid pick his opponent, and to the shock of approximately no one, he picked the guy with one fight on his record. Warren is a very accomplished wrestler, but so is Kid. And Kid hits really damn hard. Warren unexpectedly showed pretty good standup against Chase Beebe in his only fight, but Kid is a whole different animal on the feet and Yamomoto should dominate the standup. Kid hasn't fought in a long time though, and any wrestler coming off of a knee reconstruction is going to have concerns. He never had the quickest shot to begin with though, so I don't think it will have a huge impact on the fight. If Kid can handle Warren's greco wrestling and either keep it standing or get top position himself, he should coast to a decision. Normally I'd take Kid by TKO here, but a lot of guys take the safe win in the first fight back after a long layoff, and I don't think Yamomoto will be any different in this regard. Kid, decision.

Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza vs. Jason "Mayhem" Miller I'm torn about this fight. Everyone and his dog is taking Jacare, with good reason - he won the first matchup between these two, and he's ridiculous on the ground. Mayhem has said multiple times that he came into the first fight with the total wrong strategy, and let Jacare "fight his fight". He says things will be different this time, and I'm actually inclined to agree to a point. Mayhem shouldn't be out there trying to prove he can hang on the ground with Jacare, he should be doing everything he can to keep it standing where he has an advantage, and I think he'll do a better job of it this time. Unfortunately for him though, it's only a matter of time before Jacare uses his awesome wrestling and gets Mayhem to the floor. Getting out from underneath Jacare seems nearly impossible, but it's the key to the fight for Miller.

In the end though, even in Japan, the fighter that controls position wins the fight, and Mayhem is going to spend the majority of the fight on his back. I think he'll have some nice moments standing for at least a little while, but it will only delay the inevitable. Mayhem didn't get finished the first time, and I don't think he does here either. Jacare, decision. And for those paying attention, I picked decisions in all 6 of these fights. It's almost...indecisive on my part. I'm funny. Or not.

Comment and Discuss

I'm in Dunedin, New Zealand right now, and there's not a lot going on here tonight (or any night, it seems like), so I figured "why not load up on liquor and write a Dream 9 Preview?". While it might seem weird to write while I'm on vacation, I actually like doing this stuff so it's no big deal to me. The liquor though? It's definitely required to write this particular preview. This event mixes the awesome with the ridiculous like no other card in recent memory. How do you objectively preview fights involving 100+ pound weight differences, or a fucking baseball player fighting a neutered behemoth? Liquor is the key. Tuis and Spheres and jager and red bull will (hopefully) give you a clearer picture of what's going down. Let's go.

It's sort of sad that they added the Super Hulk tournament to this card, even though it's going to be hilarious. It almost seems disrespectful to the featherweight tournament fighters and the contestants in the other 2 huge fights. But, this is Japan and Dream is in dire need of a huge TV rating to stay alive over there. MMA ratings have been headed straight downhill in Japan since Pride went under, despite Sengoku and Dream putting on some pretty good cards. If this doesn't draw, nothing will. You've got a middleweight title fight, a number 1 contenders match at lightweight, 4 killer featherweight fights and the return of Kid Yamamoto, and 4 freak show fights. What's not to like? This sort of stuff would never fly in the States, but this is part of the reason I want Japanese MMA to survive so much - where else could you find this kind of entertainment?

For an american card, I'd normally break down the undercard and main card in separate entries, but Japanese shows don't have undercards - you get all 10 fights (and some pageantry) for your hard earned money. Or pirated Japanese TV stream, in this case. Anyway, I'll break down the Super Hulk Tournament first, and try not to be hard on guys like Minowaman or Canseco. But I'm not guaranteeing anything. I'll hopefully get around to covering the rest of the event before it starts.

Ikuhisa Minowa vs. Bob Sapp - Has there ever been a more hilarious curtain jerker (opening match) in history? It's been a while since I've seen a fight where one guy is almost twice the weight of his opponent. A svelte Bob Sapp comes in around 335, but I'm guessing he's in the 350 range for this. Minowa is 185, tops. I can't stand Minowa personally, but I do give him credit for regularly stepping in there against much larger opponents. He rarely wins, but he does show a lot of heart. In this case though, I only see one way he survives - running for his damn life until The Beast gasses out. Sapp likes to bullrush opponents and attempt to beat the snot out of them, but he's well past his prime (assuming he ever had a fighting "prime"). His sub defense isn't good, but I'd be highly surprrised if a 185 pound guy could grab onto anything other than a heel hook or something. Bob should be able to just power out of everything. Sapp, TKO, under 3 minutes. Folks, you should get your bets in on this ASAP, because he's only -210 right now. Seems like easy money to me.

Jose Canseco vs. Hong Man Choi - Really? I really have to come up with something for this? Wow. Okay...The Techno Goliath vs. That Steroid Guy. Canseco got KO'd by a football player in a boxing match, then fought to a draw with Danny Fucking Bonaduce. Choi is a champion kickboxer and he also happens to be 7'2. A lot has changed for Choi lately though. Last year, he had surgery to remove a tumor on his pituitary gland that caused his gigantism, and it has affected his weight (down from 365 to below 330) and primarily his aggression, for some reason. He's just not the same fighter he used to be. I'm no doctor, so I can't say if the surgery physically affected him or if it's a psychological thing, but he's no longer the elite kickboxer he used to be. In this case though - so what? He's fighting a guy with no practical experience in MMA, and he has almost a foot and 100 pounds on him. This should be an utter destruction.

As sad as it is, it'll be a destruction that makes the nightly news, Sportscenter, you name it. This kind of stuff sets MMA back a bit, because explaining to the average fan that "oh, they do that in Japan but you could never do that here" won't fly, since that doesn't mean a damn thing to them. You ask "what do you know about MMA?" to a random on the street, and they're going to respond with "That Kimbo guy, and Canseco getting his ass kicked". Joyous. Anyway, I'm done with that tangent. Choi, TKO, under 2 minutes of round 1. I can't even find a line to bet on this mofo either, but it might be the longest line in MMA history if there is one out there.

Jan Nortje vs.Sokoudjou This one is not an interesting matchup, but I'll attempt to make it so. My liquor-pickled brain can't remember a big time all-African MMA matchup before now (Soko's from Cameroon, Nortje from South Africa), but I'm sure there has been one or two. Nortje is 2-5 in MMA, 9-19 as a kickboxer. He's 10-0 as a boxer though! Okay, he hasn't boxed since 2001. What he is, though, is 6'8 and 330 pounds. He stopped Bob Sapp in under a minute the last time out. Other than that, he's a glass-chinned slob of a man with no business in MMA.

You all know what Soko's all about by now. The guy made his bones in Japan with his huge KOs of Lil Nog and Arona, but has done approximately fuck all since then. He turned down a fight against Mousasi at this event, before the tourney was created, but he might still end up meeting him down the road. In terms of this fight though, it would seem to be Soko's to lose. They both have weak chins, but Soko hits harder. They both have cardio issues, but I'd be absolutely shocked if this went more than 5 minutes. I was going to discuss how Soko's judo might be hard to work against such a big guy, but who am I kidding? Soko doesn't use his judo in his MMA fights! Seriously though, use some fancy leg trips, get the behemoth on his back, and pound him out. BJJ isn't even necessary here. Soko, TKO, round 1.

Mark Hunt vs. Gegard Mousasi - By far the most interesting matchup of the first round of Super Hulk. Hunt is a stocky, powerful guy with no ground game. Mousasi was the Dream middleweight champ until he gave up the belt to move up to LHW. There's no telling what weight Mousasi will come into this at, but Hunt should have a 70 pound weight advantage. Interestingly though, Mousasi's actually taller. Gegard's game is based in striking, but he does have a good ground game that he should most definitely take advantage of here. Mousasi has some power in his hands, but obviously not nearly as much as Mark Hunt does. It seems like Hunt's wars have finally caught up with him and his chin is failing him a bit, but it would still be unwise to keep this standing for any length of time. Mousasi doesn't really have an elite takedown game, but he should be able to get Hunt down and quickly sub him. Mousasi, sub, round 1.

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If you don't know by now, Chris Wilson didn't pass all his medical tests and is out of his fight with Brock Larson tomorrow night. His replacement will be Mike "Quicksand" Pyle, who has been waiting forever to finally get into the UFC. Pyle is a very different fighter than Wilson, so I figured it would be a good idea to write a quick preview here.

There's no point in rehashing Larson's skills, since you can check them here or here. Pyle might be a different story for you though, if you only follow the UFC. He's a very good submission fighter, based out of Xtreme Couture. In fact, he's one of the head trainers there. He's the former WEC welterweight champion, and has fought for every major North American organization out there. He has underrated standup, which mostly involves textbook kickboxing and quick hands, but his game is primarily based on dragging a guy to the ground and trying to get the sub. Hes a tall 170 at 6'1, and will have a reach advantage coming in. And of all the guys who have made their UFC debuts, Pyle might be the least likely to get the "octagon jitters". He's been around the organization forever, and has fought all over the place. Even though he's coming in on really short notice, he'll be ready.

Unfortunately for Pyle, they gave him a very tough task in his first fight. Pyle is going to have a diificult time taking Larson down, and in fact the opposite is probably true - Pyle will be spending the majority of this fight on his back. Like I said in the preview, people that think Larson's sub defense is bad are overstating it based on the Condit fight. That being said, Pyle is a similar fighter to Condit and his best chance will probably be to snatch up an arm from the bottom. The standup should be a wash, but I doubt there's much time spent in straight exchanges. Larson will push him against the cage and work the takedown. Pyle's smart, but he's just overmatched here. Neither of these guys go the distance often, and I wouldnt count on it here. Wilson fought better defensively than Pyle does and was more durable. I had that fight going to decision, but I'm going to say Larson pounds Pyle out in the 1st here. Larson, TKO, round 1.

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Once again, Gylius stepped up to the plate and wrote an awesome preview of the main event. Here you go, folks.

I'm back with another guest post. And apparently right up to the big leagues with the headliner between Rashad Evans and Lyoto Machida, two undefeated fighters. Rashad is 13-0-1 and Lyoto is 14-0. When will we see an undefeated championship bout on both sides again? Personally, I cannot think of any on the horizon in at least five years. As momentous of an occasion an undefeated bout appears to be on paper, this fight sure isn't attracting that kind of attention. A quick rundown of each fighter can explain why.

Rashad Evans was hated due to his stint on The Ultimate Fighter because he was a boring wrestler, and cocky to boot, so he has never truly gotten the attention his record may deserve. Under the tutelage of Greg Jackson, and all of the other greats in the camp, Rashad has flourished. Rashad has developed some good striking made better by his very fast hands. No longer is being blanketed for three rounds the biggest concern when fighting Evans. The big worry is that you may be knocked out badly as Chuck Liddell and Forrest Griffin can attest to.

Lyoto Machida was labeled a boring fighter because of his counter-attacking style and his many decision victories in a row. Lyoto was always seen as good, but mostly untested. In recent bouts Lyoto has been more exciting with the complete destruction of Tito Ortiz and finishing Thiago Silva very quickly and easily. Lyoto's biggest assets are that he rarely gets hit, is extremely hard to take down, and is a skilled grappler. In short, Machida excels everywhere.

Now that we got the introductions out of the way, let's get into some more detail.

Rashad has an undefeated record, but there are question marks on his record. Rashad has lost plenty of rounds in the UFC on his way to winning. Many of his fights were not exclamation point finishes to polish off an already dominant performance. Rashad has often found himself down on the scorecards in his fights before coming through with a good knockout (Griffin, and arguably Liddell) and that is not counting some of his other close fights. The Tito Ortiz fight was a draw due to fence grabbing. The Bisping fight was iffy; I believe he won that fight, but it was much closer than it should have been. On the other hand Lyoto has been dominant in all of his wins. Many of them were decisions, but there were no questions about who won the fights when they were over. Lyoto does not lose rounds. In the one opponent they share, Tito, Lyoto won 14.5 minutes of his fight. Machida not only dominated the striking, but dictated where the fight would take place by negating Tito's takedowns and succeeding in his own. Rashad's fight with Tito was a back and forth affair. Rashad landed more strikes, Tito landed more takedowns. The bout was decided when Tito grabbed the fence and was docked a point accordingly, thus a draw. Neither looked better than the other.

Rashad (or Greg Jackson) has the unenviable position of having to solve the riddle of Lyoto. To beat Machida, you have to somehow take him out of his comfort zone. The last time we saw that happen was against an out of shape, but always dangerous BJ Penn. That was a long time ago and there is no reason to assume Lyoto is anywhere near the same kind of fighter. Rashad's hands are fast enough to deal with Lyoto, he has the power to put him down with a good punch, but severely lacks the footwork to connect the dots. More importantly Rashad is also a counter-attacker that takes advantage of his opponent's mistakes, as he showed during the third round of the Griffin fight. However, Lyoto rarely makes mistakes and is content to win one strike at a time. Great lateral movement, quick attacks going foward, quick movement backwards makes striking with Lyoto frustrating.

The only way I can see Rashad winning is a lucky KO, and it will be lucky based upon Lyoto's ability to avoid damage (take a look at this FightMetric post detailing strikes absorbed per minute of fighting). Theoretically Rashad could put Lyoto on his back and finish him there, but I have more faith in a flash KO. Either way I'm not sold on Rashad being able to do much. In every major aspect of this fight Machida has the advantage. Lyoto has proven that he can outstrike talented strikers,outwrestle good wrestlers, and he can submit if need be. Lyoto can win this fight anywhere. It is rare to have the challenger be the heavy favorite, but that is what happens when you have to fight Machida. I hope Rashad went ahead and held off on the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion business cards.

Lyoto Machida by Unanimous Decision

Comment and Discuss

Since I'm on vacation, we've taken the opportunity to ask a guest to post a piece or two. Board mod Gylius accepted, and here's what he came up with.

Five fighters that should retire

...so that it does not depress me.

Let me preface this by saying every single person on this list has massive, massive balls. What they have done for the sport cannot be understated. They are true pioneers in every sense of the word. However, one of the most depressing situations a professional fighter can find themselves in is to have stayed too long. Combat sports are not kind to their participants. If one stays long enough, they will inevitably falter, they will become a shell of their former self, they will lose. It is one of the few constants we have in a sport as unpredictable as fighting. Muhammad Ali, Mike Tyson, and currently Roy Jones Jr. is on a quest to do the same. Like these great champions of Boxing, Mixed Martial Arts has them as well.

Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic

The most feared striker in Pride History. Mirko was unstoppable as he won the Open Weight Grand Prix, finishing Wanderlei Silva and Josh Barnett in a single night. Cro Cop was in close contention with Fedor to be considered the best in the world and 2006 proved he could very well be worthy of the title. All that was left to do was settle the previous score with Fedor and one man would be crowned. As we all know that didn't happen. Instead Mirko would find himself fighting in a cage instead of a ring. Gonzaga high kicked Mirko into a whole new world. Cheick Kongo capitalized on Cro Cop's broken spirit and nearly made him quit the sport with a few well placed knees to the groin. A short couple of fights later and we wondered if there was anything left in the tank for Mirko. We were nearly proven right with his next three debacles, a win against a novice, a loss by complete nut destruction (I'm calling it a loss because he was going to lose anyway), and a freak show win?

Where does that leave the most feared striker in Pride history? It doesn't leave Mirko with much. Could he continue fighting and win some bogus fights? Absolutely. If there is one thing you can count on in Japan, it is an endless stream of ridiculous fights. Should he: No.

Chuck "Iceman" Liddell

What is there to say about Liddell? Chuck was the most famous MMA fighter for years due to his highlight reel of knockouts courtesy of, well, everyone in the light heavyweight division. Liddell did it while maintaining very "eventful" extra curricular activities. You may have wanted a title fight with him, but you knew Chuck could turn your lights out at any moment, and do it while he was backing up. Unfortunately, some other people in this sport finally figured out how to strike. It is one thing to knock out everyone when they are no threat with their hands, but it is quite another to do it when they can punch right back. Now, Chuck has lost four of his last five fights, but the real kicker is that he has been knocked out three of the four times. Ouch, quite a turn of events.

Chuck's game has been figured out and it is very hard to teach an old dog new tricks, especially when the reflexes are slower, and the synapses do not fire as well. Liddell should walk away from the sport that made him a star because constant knockouts are not healthy for the brain at all. I promise Chuck will have plenty to occupy his time with a bevy of willing ladies to cheer him up.

Wanderlei "The Axe Murderer" Silva

Mirko Cro Cop might have been the most feared striker in Pride, but Wanderlei was the most feared fighter in MMA period. If you say you can walk down a dark alley, see Wanderlei Silva and not shit yourself, you are a liar. Wanderlei would fight anyone, at anytime. Weight classes meant little to Silva as he had no problem fighting in the Open Weight Grand Prix. A man that started his MMA career in the bare knuckle vale tudo circuit is a man not to cross in the ring (I wouldn't cross him playing checkers). In a career spanning 10 years, Wanderlei has fought nearly everyone. Silva punched and stomped his way through Pride as a fighter possessed with his first loss coming from Mark Hunt, an enormous striker who was much, much heavier.

If you have a seen a Wanderlei Silva fight you have to understand that he has no problem exchanging blows. Historically, Silva's opponent's chin was the first to crack, but time has caught up to The Axe Murderer. Silva's once great chin is no longer the same with the punishment of an accumulation of fights and of course Chute Box training sessions to boot. Wanderlei is 1-4 in his last five fights. All of his losses came against good fighters, but three of them with brutal knockouts. Silva should walk away from the sport before all of the glean of his once great career is gone.

Antonio "Minotauro" Nogueira

Nogueira is a living legend. In an article about five people with massive balls, Norgueira has the biggest of them all. No one has put on as many great performances, pulled victory out of thin air, or impressed more than he. To tell Minotauro's story right one has to include his childhood. One has to include the time Nogueira was hit by a car while playing in the street. He spent time in a coma, did not walk for almost a year, and still became a world champion. If that is not an amazing story, what is? Nogueira had absolute wars with the best Pride had to offer. Fedor twice. Cro Cop. Bob Sapp (technically Bob isn't a great, but that fight was inspiring). And countless other greats. As they say Nogueira does not lose fights, he runs out of time. Until now.

Nogueira has not looked like himself lately. The accumulation of wars, and no one has had more wars than he, finally seems to be taking its toll. While Nogueira only has one loss in last four fights, he looked terrible in his last couple of fights. Losing to Frank Mir in the way Minotauro did seemed to say his beard was finally done and worse yet he had no way to move and get out of the way. It is okay not to be able to take a punch to the face well as long as the punches are not hitting you. If you are taking the punches in the face and not moving. Uh oh. Age and wars seemed to have slowed the once great fighter. Minotauro looks much older than his 32 years.

The Randy Couture fight should be very telling about his capabilities to continue going forward. I am inclined to believe it is over for Nogueira, but would he even stop? Could he? I sure hope so for completely selfish reasons about not seeing interviews of him at 50 with Parkinsons.

Kazushi Sakuraba

The fighter was touted as The Gracie Hunter for proving that maybe you do not need Brazilian Jiu Jitsu to be good at grappling. Sakuraba beat not one, not two, not three, but four different Gracies, and some under interesting rules (read: Royce). Maybe it was unfair to say Nogueira had the biggest because Sakuraba should be right there. Another fighter that weight classes meant very little most of the time. To use an obvious cliche, Sakuraba definitely has the Samurai spirit. Sakuraba has also been in numerous wars and with an unflappable ring demeanor has won a great many tough fights.

Sakuraba has also lost a few fights over the years as well and with far too many being finishes. Having fights overturned (Akiyama: the original greasegate scandal) and losing brutally to fighters like Manhoef does not bode well for Kazushi Sakuraba. The nail in the coffin really has to be the reports that say his brain is fast becoming mush after his many fights. I find it hard to believe that Sakuraba would even be cleared to fight in the US. Unfortunately, Sakuraba is Japanese, and they will let him die in the ring if need be. That would be a shame.

Every one of these fighters has been amazing, truly amazing over their careers. All careers come to an end, and the last thing I want to see is each of these fighters finishing their last ten fights going one and nine. We do not need more Ken Shamrocks. It is depressing and beneath them as pioneers of the sport.

Comment and Discuss

I don't have time for preamble since I have a lot of trip-stuff to do, so I'm just going to get right to it. The 2 major changes to the main card, XFP in for Irvin and Sonnen in for Okami, doesn't really change a lot for me. Okami and Sonnen are similarly unexciting to me, and Professor X is a standup fighter like Irvin. That being said, I'm happy that Professor X will get the chance to rough up McFedries on the main card because he deserves the exposure. Anyway, onto the fights.

Xavier Foupa-Pokam vs. Drew McFedries - Let's just say this is unlikely to go to a decision. Professor X is just like his profile says - a slick, long-limbed Muay Thai fighter with a solid chin and a good sub game off his back. He went 3 with Kang and lost, but he had some nice moments standing in the fight. Kang is a much better defensive fighter than McFedries, and XFP should have the advantage almost everywhere this fight goes. McFedries has mad power in his hands and a good chin, but that's about it. His ground game is sloppy, his submission defense is weak, and he's fighting for his UFC life here. Not a good sign.

As stated, I think this is Foupa-Pokam's fight to lose. He's coming in as a semi-large dog, but that line is way off and worth betting. He's never been in there with someone that hits as hard as Drew though, so he shouldn't rely on his chin as much as he normally would. He's going to have to take the striking game to McFedries and accumulate damage. X's main weakness is his wrestling, but McFedries isn't likely to take him down. If he did though, getting put on his back wouldn't be a bad thing for XFP at all. None of Drew's UFC fights have ever gone to the second round, but I think this one actually will. Professor X can use the big reach advantage and knees to add up damage standing, and will get the TKO early in the 2nd. An armbar wouldn't surprise me at all either though.

Dan Miller vs. Chael Sonnen - Mr. Underrated vs. Mr. Overrated. This must be tremendously disappointing for Miller, who was getting a crack at a top 3 guy in the division until Okami went down. This fight is way more winnable for him, but it's not going to send him racing up the charts at middleweight. There is a silver lining though, in the fact that because Sonnen's so overrated, the win might be worth more than it actually is. And I guess you don't need to be Sherlock Holme to figure out who I'm picking here.

Most people don't give this Miller brother enough respect, but he's definitely earned it. It's been said that it was a no-win fight for Okami, since beating a guy so far below him did nothing to get him closer to a title shot. I highly disagree. Miller is right there at the door, waiting to enter the top 5 of the division. He is/was the reigning Cage Fury and IFL middleweight champion, and is 3-0 in the UFC. His game is extremely well-rounded and his only weakness may be that he's not an elite striker. He's a brown belt in BJJ with good takedowns and does everything well on the ground. He also rarely makes mistakes and is very good at capitalizing on his opponents mistakes, which makes him the polar opposite of his opponent.

Sonnen is a goof. I think I start every Chael Sonnen description like that, but it's true. He's a very good wrestler who has been given more credit that he deserves for his boxing, but it's still okay. His major weaknesses are that he's prone to stupid mistakes, his submission defense is subpar, and his lack of respect for his opponents skills catches up to him a lot.

Miller's got this. Sonnen's not a better wrestler than Jake Rosholt, and Miller handled him. The standup should be a wash, if Miller can keep his feet moving and not get pushed up against the cage a lot. Miller might get taken down, but he should be able to get back up before Sonnen can do any damage. He can also catch Sonnen napping in a ground scramble and either snatch up his neck or an arm, maybe even take his back. Sonnen's never been able to get the wrestler way of thinking out of his head when he's in a guy's guard or attempting a takedown, and it costs him time and time again. Miller, sub, round 2.

Frank Edgar vs. Sean Sherk To me, this fight requires little explanation. It can be summed up in one word: size. Edgar is an extremely talented fighter, and I believe he would be the best in the world at his natural weight class, which is 145. The big money's at 155 though, so Edgar presses on in the UFC and has beaten a litany of talented guys bigger than him. He gets the most credit for his win over Tyson Griffin, but his most impressive win to me was over Spencer Fisher. He's taken out BJJ guys, wrestlers, and well-rounded guys. He's simply an elite fighter. About the only thing he lacks other than size is finish, but a lot of guys at 155 have that problem. The problem for Edgar is he's at the stage of his UFC career where it's belt or bust. He has to either ascend the ladder and take out top 5 guys, or he needs to drop to 145. Unfortunately for him, everyone above him is much bigger than him, including his opponent. Sean Sherk.

It's pretty obvious what Sherk brings to the table here - elite wrestling and strength, relentless pace, awesome top control, a good chin, and underrated standup. He might be the same height as Edgar, but he's an incredibly thick 155. This fight is going to go the same way as Maynard/Edgar did - Frank's going to get bullied. Even if Sherk decides to just kickbox with him, when he's not giving up reach his standup is pretty lethal and Edgar isn't going to be able to outpoint him there. In his last 2 fights, Sherk has gone away from his regular takedown/control/GnP style, but I would think his best bet would to be to go back to it here against Edgar, considering how much of an advantage he has in the strength department. Sherk's no finisher either though, so this is all but guaranteed to be a dominant decision win for Sherk. Edgar's really damn good, it's just not the right weight class for him.

Matt Hughes vs. Matt Serra - We've been talking about this fight for two fucking years, so I'm not sure how much original stuff I can come up with here. Typically I describe what each guy brings to the cage, but it's all common knowledge with these two. So I'll skip the preamble and go right to how I think it'll go down.

My first instinct is to type "How can Matt Serra possibly win this fight?" I hate Matt Hughes the person, but Matt Hughes the fighter is still a beast. I've said it before, but the people that are writing off Hughes are doing it way too prematurely. There's no shame in losing to GSP and an overweight Alves. His biggest advantage was always his size and strength, and while time and evolution has let the rest of the 170 elite catch up to him in these regards, Matt Serra is a natural 155 guy who's not very strong at that weight, much less 170. Serra does have some power in his hands, but Hughes has always done a good job of keeping strikers in a position where they can't strike - on their back. While there's always the chance of a flash KO, against Hughes the likelihood is very small. So it's unlikely Serra can win this standing, except for one scenario I'll get to in a minute.

How about on the ground? People give Serra's jits a lot more credit that it deserves, MMA-wise. In fact, his MMA BJJ really isn't anything special offensively, especially off his back. And Hughes has developed very good submission defense over the years anyway. Serra will have such a hard enough time keeping Hughes from passing to side control, he won't even have time to be looking for an arm or a triangle. It's also extremely unlikely he'll be able to sweep Hughes. And Serra's top game won't matter, since I wouldn't expect more than 10 seconds of the fight to be spent in that position, at most.

So, Serra can't win the fight on the ground either. There are only 2 things I can think of that would give him a glimmer of hope - Serra madly improving his takedown defense (which his camp says they've been working very hard on), and Hughes having recent knee surgery. Wrestlers do lose the steam in their takedowns pretty quickly on the dark side of their careers, and a knee reconstruction can definitely speed up the degeneration of their shots. A little from aisle A and a little from aisle B could, theoretically, lead to Serra keeping it standing. If he could stay on his feet for the whole fight, I'd put at 50/50. But that's a HUGE if, and one I don't envision.

I've been thinking Hughes by decision all along, but more recently I've been considering Hughes via side mount elbows and hammerfists in round 3. I'm going to stick with my instincts and say Hughes takes a throughly dominant 30-27 decision, very similar to the way he beat Chris Lytle. And I can go back to hating him again after she says something retarded in the post-fight interview.

Rashad Evans vs. Lyoto Machida - I've been dreading having to write about this fight, to be honest. Dreading it so much I'm going to save it for another article. HA! You'll just have to wait for a day or three to get a thorough analysis of the fight. I promise you, it will be worth the wait.

Quick picks:
Foupa-Pokam, TKO, round 2
Mliler, sub, round 2
Sherk, decision
Hughes, decision
Rashad/Machida coming soon!

Comment and Discuss

It's that time again. I was really getting in the groove when it came to writing these things, but the lack of cards over the last few months has me a little rusty. UFC 98 will be an interesting experiment, since the main event fighters haven't established themselves as PPV draws yet. In fact, about the only big money draw on the card is Matt Hughes, who's clearly seen better days. Rashad vs. Machida is obviously a huge fight at 205, and a main event fight between two undefeated fighters is a great drawing card, in theory. Actually I think Rashad was in the only other main event between 2 undefeated fighters (excluding TUF Finales) when he fought Bisping at UFC 78. Interesting. Sort of.

Just so you know, I'm writing this on May 8th (15 days before the event), because I'm leaving for the Cook Islands and New Zealand on sunday. I probably won't have much time to write while I'm spending 3 weeks mainlining Speights and trying not to get beaten up by Mark Hunt lookalikes for running my stupid mouth, so I'm doing it now. It's very possible something could change in terms of the card, like Okami, Alexander and Irvin dropping out this week, so if this is feels a little "dated", deal with it. Take comfort in the fact that I'm on vacation, and you're not! Losers! (Author's note before someone else adds it - Tim's opinions of people not on vacation are his alone, and are not representative of Rudius Media's societal views.)

Undercard preview up first. This card has been cursed so far, with a ton of injuries and replacement fighters. Going over the lineup, the first thing I thought was "Jesus, did every single one of these guys lose their last fight?" Pat Barry won his last one, and Brock Larson (late replacement for Koscheck) won his. This is Hague's UFC debut. Kryzswzowzlof is in for Alexander now, and he won his last one. The other 8 all lost. How ridiculous is that? Total UFC record of the 12 combatants? 7-11. It was 7-14 before Houston got hurt. Before the event, the UFC 97 undercard was 21-21 in the UFC. UFC 96? 17-12. I think you can see my point - for a Vegas PPV, this is one weak, inexperienced undercard. The amusing part is that if Koscheck had actually been here instead of Larson, he would have had almost twice as many UFC wins as the ENTIRE undercard (9 for Kos, 5 for the rest) and almost as many UFC fights as all of them combined (13 for Kos, 15 for the other 11 guys). Just some stats to think about.

David Kaplan vs. George Roop - Diamond Dave will win via best entrance. What else is there to say? Okay, I guess I should actually analyze the fight. Basically, Kaplan shows off his best stuff before he steps into the cage. After that, he's really average. He was touted as a future star on the east coast, working with Team Lloyd Irvin, and ended up on TUF. From there on however, he's proven to be a middling prospect at best. He excels at nothing, but is serviceable at everything.

Roop is undersized for 155. He's a natural featherweight. The fact that he made TUF 8 (barely) and was competitive against Shane Nelson is a testament to his skill and tenacity, but he belongs in the WEC. His wrestling is good, but he hasn't shown a lot other than that. His striking isn't great (although his kicks are somewhat nice), his submission defense needs work, and he's not a finisher. I'm actually very surprised he was given another UFC fight considering how boring his matchup with Nelson was.

I realize I haven't had much nice to say about either of them, but it irks me that this fight makes it onto a big card while other talented lightweights with talent are sitting on the sidelines. Kap should win this handily. Roop just isn't a threat to Kaplan anywhere, and I'm not sure why Roop is the favorite right now. Kaplan's 2-2, but losing to a Pride vet and Junie's not so bad. Roop's going to have a huge reach advantage over Kap, so I would expect Kap to look to clinch and earn the takedown, and work his ground game. I'll say Kaplan, sub, round 2, but I wouldn't be surprised with an uninspired decision victory either. Something to look for - for some reason, both of these guys like to give up position to go for heel hooks, so dueling heel hooks at some point is almost a guarantee.

Brandon Wolff vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida - Talk about 2 guys who looked shitty the last time out. Wolff ate 49? knees from Ben Saunders, and Yoshida got knocked out Mortal Kombat-style by Josh Koscheck. It's all uphill from here boys...well, for one of you anyway. Of the two, Yoshida is far and away the better fighter. A lot of fans will write him off after the brutal KO, but he still has a lot of offer in the UFC WW division. He was ranked at 16 before the fight, and dropped all the way to a tie for 32 now? From losing to a top 5 guy, even brutally? What's really brutal is how quickly guys get written off in this sport.

Wolff is 7-3, with 2 split decision wins. Woo. One was a 5 rounder though, and he's always been known for having good cardio. He's a former navy seal who only trains part time. He likes to bang, and while he has some experience on the floor, it's not really his favorite place to be. Yoshida is a well-rounded guy with great judo takedowns and has some vicious ground n pound, especially elbows. While he did get caught by Kos, his standup is actually quite good, as is his cage control. He's also quite slick on the ground, as evidenced by his sweet finish of War Machine.

I think you can see where this one is going. Wolff's going to get tossed around like a tackling dummy and get pounded out. I don't see him being able to defend against the judo well at all, and he's not great off his back by any means. I'm thinking this fight might make the main broadcast if the main event doesn't go 5 rounds, because it should end quickly, decisively, and brutally. Yoshida, TKO, round 1. And the first step to shaking the ghost of Kos.

Krzysztof Soszynski vs. Andre Gusmao - Capoiera vs. Canada. That's a terrible headline for a fight, but it's so dumb there's no way I can leave it out. This was supposed to be Houston Alexander and Gusmao, but as you know, Houston broke his hand so we get "The Polish Experiment" instead. What a stupid nickname. I mentioned in my Exposed article that Krzysztof was about to get...um, exposed. Is this the fighter that does it? Well, he has a better chance here than he would against most of the 205 class, that's for sure.

Frankly, I'm sick of writing about Soszynski, so I'm coping and pasting my assessment of him from the UFC 97 preview. It's not like anything's changed in a month. He's average at everything; excellent at nothing. His striking is powerful but wild, because he ignores defense and throws until he connects. Anyone with footwork and countering can take Soszynski to school on the feet. His ground game is better than his standup, using methodical GnP and good top control to go along with a serviceable sub game. His wrestling has vastly improved lately under Team Quest eyes, and that might be the key to this fight. There, that covers that.

Gusmao brings a really unique talent into the octagon - capoeira. I still don't quite understand how effective this dancing-like martial art can be in the cage, but at least it looks cool. But to be honest, I don't see it having much of an effect on the fight. The part of Gusmao's game that matters is his black belt in BJJ and his takedowns. He might have 3 TKO's out of his 5 victories, but even with Krzysztof's wide open striking game, I doubt Gusmao's style is helpful in counterfighting. He's only been training full-fledged MMA for 2 years, so I doubt he has a lot of other skills to bring to the table here. The ground seems like a much better idea.

Basically, the keys to the fight are how well Gusmao can defend against Soszynski's big shots on the feet, and how well Soszynski can defend the takedown. Normally K-Sos would look for the takedown and work a kimura like he did against Stann, but he's not really in much danger standing and it would be pretty stupid to lay in a black belt's guard for any length of time. He'll want to stand and bang for as long as possible. Gusmao will want K-Sos on his back, where he has many more options available to him - GnP, working subs, etc. I'm not sure if pulling or jumping guard and looking to sweep would be the best idea for Gusmao, since Soszynski has a pretty steady base and might be hard to sweep. Then again, he'd probably just try to stand right back up out of Gusmao's guard anyway.

I see this fight ending one of 2 ways - a super fancy KO, or a decision. The differences in their striking styles could lead to one or the other getting caught really badly. But if that doesn't happen, the decision will go to whomever defends better and keeps the fight where they want it. If the majority if the fight is on the feet, K-Sos wins. On the ground, Gusmao wins. I've always looked at these situations as an advantage for the striker (with good takedown D), since each round starts standing and the onus is on the ground fighter to get the fight where he wants it. But in this case, I think Gusmao takes the decision. Going against logic made me pick Stann over K-Sos though, and I was wrong. So take that for what you will.

Kyle Bradley vs. Phillipe Nover - I just wrote way too much about those two, so this will be kept to a minimum. Frankly, I'm not sure what Bradley did to earn another shot here. I guess maybe he was just a good matchup for Nover to look good against after the disastrous TUF finale fight with Escudero. Bradley is outclassed pretty much everywhere in this fight, and I'd be shocked if we saw him in the UFC again after this fight.

Bradley started out as a boxer and has a brown belt in BJJ under Rich Clementi. He's a larger-than-average 155, coming down a division after getting wrecked by Chris Lytle. His boxing is fairly good, especially his footwork, and he has some power. His takedown defense is lacking though, and he certainly doesn't act like a brown belt on the ground, giving up position and getting his guard passed like a wrestler. Nover is a HUGE 155 with a solid all-round game, with especially good offensive work on the ground. His takedown defense needs work, as does his boxing.

This should be fairly simple to map - Nover should be looking to get this down and work his offensive BJJ immediately. Nover's got okay standup, but Bradley does have heavy hands and they're not worth messing with for long. Even though Bradley's a brown belt, Nover should completely outclass him on the ground. I doubt he'd get baited into it, but getting Bradley to take him down wouldn't even put Nover at much of a disadvantage, sine he's very active off his back. He might drop the first round if he thinks he has something to prove and stays on the feet with him, but he'll come to his senses eventually. Nover, sub, round 2.

Pat Barry vs. Tim Hague - I'm looking forward to seeing this. I know I haven't been full of compliments towards Pat Barry in the last few days on here, but he's undeniably entertaining. "Hype or Die" is a fucking cool motto/nickname, and he certainly lives up to it. His opponent is a King of the Cage heavyweight champion, and has 4 inches and 30 pounds on Barry, but I seriously doubt that's going to matter.

For those of you that don't know a lot about Barry, there's really only one word necessary to explain him. Kicks. Specifically leg kicks, although his body kicks are great too. He has power in his hands too, but his boxing is pretty elementary. He switches stances a fair amount, which can mess with an opponent. Barry is a national champion in San Shou, and he's adapted his clinch work, takedown defense and balance to fit MMA very well. His ground work is extremely raw though, and needs a lot of work (like most kickboxers relatively new to MMA). In his matchup with Dan Evensen, he fell into Evensen's guard and didn't throw one strike in the 20+ seconds he was there - all he looked for was a way to stand back up. I can't explain his style any better than Barry himself can:

"That being said, you don't have to worry about my double-leg takedowns. You don't have to worry about my kimura. Don't worry about that stuff. If you're fighting me, you have to be worried I'm going to throw any type of strike possible that I'm capable of doing; spin kicks, levitating kicks - I'll even throw a fireball at you if I can."

Tim Hague is a completely different type of fighter. He's a huge dude with heavy hands good GnP, and...I'm still trying to figure out the rest. He shoots in slowly and uses power instead of technique to get takedowns. He doesn't press the action very well, and his boxing lacks technique. He rarely uses combinations, but has managed to land power punches against lesser competition. To me, he's like a Canadian Neil Grove...he belongs in Cage Rage, not the UFC. And I don't think he'll be here for long after UFC 98. Why? Because HD's going to kick the shit out of him.

Watching the video of Hague's only MMA loss made me laugh, because he gets absolutely destroyed, by...leg kicks! His opponent destroyed his knee in the first round. Here, check it yourself if you please. Hague had no defense for it. That fight was 14 months ago, and he might have learned a little bit since then, but 20 years isn't enough time to learn how to protect yourself from Pat Barry's kicks. I almost think Joe Silva saw that very video and signed Hague to be Barry's heavy bag. As if he didn't have enough problems here, Hague was given plenty of notice for this fight and had a 13 week training camp, so it's likely that he's overtrained. Anyway, Hague will try to swing for the fences and push Barry up against the cage continually, but Barry will eventually catch him a bunch of times and he'll win by TKO. Could be with the kicks or a huge looping left hand, but either way, Hague's going to be eating floor and we'll be treated to another awesome Pat Barry interview. Barry, TKO, round 1.

Brock Larson vs. Chris Wilson - I really like this fight, possibly more than Kos/Wilson. And I'm still in shock about Wilson's performance against John Howard, getting taken down so many times and almost outworked. He's so much better than he was in that fight. That being said though, Larson is an a beast (profile!) that shouldn't be taken lightly at all. I have no clue what the odds are going to be here, but I would expect Larson to be a solid favorite. And rightly so.

Wilson is very well-rounded, with good wrestling, submissions and submission defense. His striking is average and he inexplicably gives up a lot of takedowns. He's a great scrambler though, and is adept at flipping takedown attempts and taking top position himself. He's also very good at getting up off his back, and pushing the pace on his opponent. He's also extremely hard to finish.Brock Larson is still pretty much the same guy I described in the profile above. Now a brown belt in guerrilla jiu-jitsu, he combines good fundamental wrestling with solid submissions and brutal GnP. He's usually a quick finisher, but that will be very tough against Wilson. The quick sub he gave up to Carlos Condit made many question his submission defense, but it's pretty top-notch. Condit's just a sneaky mofo, much sneakier than Wilson.

I give the advantage to Brock in this fight. The look pretty even on paper, but Brock has one big advantage - his takedowns are much better than Wilson's takedown defense. Since Brock never goes very long though, it's tough to say how good his top control is, and Wilson getting off his back continually will be a big decider on how much he gets done here. I wouldn't be surprised if Brock could finish Wilson, but Wilson's resiliency and his scrambling ability have me leaning towards Larson picking up a decision victory. I just don't think Wilson can do enough to earn rounds against Brock. Larson, decision.

Quick Picks:

Kaplan, sub, round 2
Yoshida, TKO, round 1
Gusmao, decision
Nover, sub, round 2
Barry, TKO, round 1
Larson, decision

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Just to let everyone know, I'm going on vacation tomorrow morning for 18 days. I will be back on May 28th. Fear not though, faithful readers. The site will still be updated a fair amount, just not 4-5 times a week like usual. So keep coming back and checking out the content, because there will still be quality stuff here.

And, just so there's an actual point to this post, check this kickass KO from Bellator VI last night (35 second mark):

That was a seriously awesome spinning backfist. It's also quite possibly the loudest KO I've ever heard. Normally when you see KO's, you think "damn, that looks like it hurt". With this one, you're thinking "Holy shit, that looked AND SOUNDED fucking brutal!" Bellator continues to deliver quality fights and production. It's quickly becoming the 3rd best MMA promotion in North America. Check it out, if you haven't already.

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According to this article, the UFC will be inducting 2 new members into the UFC Hall of Fame at UFC 100. The article lists 4 possibilties: Chuck Liddell, Mask, Evan Tanner, and Matt Hughes. I think they got one fighter on the list right, but it's probably for a lot of the wrong reasons.

To me, Evan Tanner is obvious. It was kind of weird that the UFC made a much bigger deal out of Mask dying than they did Evan, but Tanner was such a unique and polarizing figure in the sport that he deserves a spot in the HOF. He fought in the octagon 17 times, and won the middleweight title. Yes he only held the belt for a little while and lost 4 out of his last 5 in the cage, but his unique story and tragic death make him a lock to me.

As for the others they mentioned - I think it's way too soon for all 3 of them. Chuck's last fight was less than a month ago, and he hasn't decided if he's going to retire or not. Dana will probably try to rush this along to make sure Chuck never fights again, and I've seen stranger things for sure, but if I'm Chuck I don't go through with it right now. Hughes will obviously be in sooner or later, but the outcome of his UFC 98 fight seems slightly more important right now. Even if he lost and retired on the spot on May 23rd, it's just too soon. The article makes a good case for Mask, but he's never fought and I would think Dana would want to keep the HOF away from a "builders" category, considering how young the sport is and how few fighters are already in the HOF. But considering the other options and how Dana is, there aren't many other contenders right now.

Here are a few other fighters I'd consider, but I doubt Dana ever would:

Pat Miletich - I'd love to see it happen, but his WAMMA work will probably prevent it.

Tank Abbott - As much as the UFC is trying to get away from the brawler image, he was an icon in the sport in the early days.

Bas Rutten - Obviously a legend, but his work with the IFL and HDNET would make him an unlikely choice.

Marcos Ruas - A pioneer in the sport, but never fought under the Zuffa banner and doesn't get his due from a lot of fans.

Jens Pulver - The Grispi fight is before this event, and if he lost again I could definitely see him hanging it up. But I think it's a little early to be leaning that way right now.

Who would you pick?

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I was goofing around with Twitter today, and I came across something Joe Lauzon...tweeted? I don't know the stupid terminology. Anyway, here's what it said:

Watching the BJ Penn 90 Days DVD (http://bjpenn90days.com/). Its pretty cool... tons of great video.

BJ Penn DVD? I was unaware of such a DVD, so I acted like a good little sheep and went to the webpage. All I can say is...wow.

Now, I'm 100% sure the DVD is cool as hell, and I will be trying to get my grubby paws on a copy ASAP. But the webpage made me laugh uncontrollably. The description of the DVD? Sweet. The bonus interview from 4 days after the GSP fight, describing his account of it? I'm sure the word grease will be used more than in...uh, Grease...but it should be cool. So what part is so god damn funny? The "Special Features".

* BJ's bad childhood soccer experience

* An interview with BJ's mom

* The real reason why Reagan Penn was not named "Jay Dee"

* How BJ got the name, "The Prodigy"

* Learn about BJ's special oxygen tent

OH NO, BJ! That terrible, traumatizing, humiliating...soccer game? An interview with your mommy? I'm sure the NSAC is lining up for that one, since they haven't had enough of Lorraine! I've already seen the oxygen tent explanation on youtube. But the best one of all is "Why Reagan is named Reagan". Is there actually one person out there that's willing to pony up 17.95 plus S&H to find out why one of his fucking brothers wasn't named like all the others? I love it. I simply love it. I'm laughing again as I type this. BJ, everytime I think you've reached the zenith of your awesomeness, you come out with something like this.

People, things like this are why BJ Penn is the most entertaining guy in MMA. It's not even a contest anymore. Game over. It's done.

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